Monthly Market Observations — April 2026
Three developments defined March 2026: (1) Operation Epic Fury — US/Israeli strikes on Iran blocked the Strait of Hormuz, stranding 200+ tankers and introducing a stagflationary supply shock into global markets; (2) AI Disruption — Oracle, Meta, Atlassian, and Block announced mass layoffs citing AI-driven restructuring, while Anthropic's leaked Mythos model rattled cybersecurity valuations; (3) Private Credit Stress — elevated fund redemptions tested quarterly liquidity limits, raising the risk of widening credit spreads. Portfolio considerations address a potential regime shift from disinflationary to stagflationary, and a watch on consumer resilience as the personal savings rate hits 4.5% and gas prices cross $4/gallon.
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