Monthly Market Observations — July 2026

Markets broadened beyond mega-cap technology shares this month, with the equal-weight S&P 500 outpacing the cap-weighted index and the Russell 2000 rising while the Nasdaq fell. Memory chipmakers helped semiconductors avoid the broader selloff even as oversupply concerns emerged. In his first meeting as Fed Chair, Kevin Warsh scrapped forward guidance and delivered a hawkish dot plot, though the market reaction was tempered by comments from seasoned Fed officials. Portfolio considerations address a record wave of equity supply, well-anchored long-term inflation expectations, and the potential for inflation relief as oil prices retreat from a ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.